# How many SpaceX launches in November 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many SpaceX launches in November 2026?". Above 120 leads at 99%. Next is Above 6 at 98%. $970K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T15:39:03Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $970K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Above 120 | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Above 6 | 98% | — | 98% | not on both |
| Above 7 | 87% | — | 87% | not on both |
| 13 | 70.8% | 93.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 140 | 67% | — | 67% | not on both |
| 4 | 62% | — | 62% | not on both |
| Above 8 | 58% | — | 58% | not on both |
| 5 | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Above 9 | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Above 145 | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| 3 | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Above 150 | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| 15 | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| 16+ | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| 14 | 3.3% | 3.3% | — | not on both |
| Above 10 | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| Above 160 | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| 6 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 11 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 12 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 170 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 180 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Above 190 | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| 1 or below | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 2 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 7 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 8 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 9 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| 10 or above | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 13 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 14 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 15 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 16 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 200 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Above 210 | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [spacex.com](https://www.spacex.com/launches).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/launches).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between November 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

In the case of missing or erroneous data from spacex.com, this market will remain open until December 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, to allow for updates. If spacex.com has not updated by December 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-spacex-launches-in-november-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-spacex-launches-in-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxspacexcount?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-spacex-launches-in-november-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.