# How many Taiwanese mayor/magistrate races will KMT win?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many Taiwanese mayor/magistrate races will KMT win?". 13 leads at 31.5%. Next is 10 at 31%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T22:47:03Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 13 | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| 10 | 31% | 31% |
| 9 | 29% | 29% |
| 8 | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| 14 | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| 15 | 24% | 24% |
| 11 | 21.5% | 21.5% |
| 12 | 20% | 20% |
| 7 | 7.5% | 7.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of Mayor and Magistrate elections for Taiwan’s special municipalities, counties, and cities won by the Kuomintang (KMT) during these elections.

A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party.

Taiwan’s local governments include the following cities, special municipalities, and counties:

Cities/special municipalities (mayoral elections): Taipei City, New Taipei City, Taoyuan City, Taichung City, Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Keelung City, Hsinchu City, Chiayi City

Counties (magistrate elections): Yilan County, Hsinchu County, Miaoli County, Changhua County, Nantou County, Yunlin County, Chiayi County, Pingtung County, Taitung County, Hualien County, Penghu County, Lienchiang County, Kinmen County

If the results of the 2026 Taiwanese local elections aren’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-taiwanese-mayormagistrate-races-will-kmt-win
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-taiwanese-mayormagistrate-races-will-kmt-win?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-taiwanese-mayormagistrate-races-will-kmt-win

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.