# How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many Trump Cabinet members will leave before 2028?". At least 2 leads at 96.5%. Next is At least 3 at 96%. $24K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:21:41Z (14 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $24K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| At least 2 | 96.5% | — | 96.5% | not on both |
| At least 3 | 96% | — | 96% | not on both |
| At least 4 | 94.5% | — | 94.5% | not on both |
| At least 5 | 93% | — | 93% | not on both |
| At least 6 | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| At least 7 | 81% | — | 81% | not on both |
| At least 8 | 65% | — | 65% | not on both |
| At least 9 | 54% | — | 54% | not on both |
| At least 10 | 39% | — | 39% | not on both |
| 3 | 31% | 31% | — | not on both |
| 5 | 30.6% | 30.6% | — | not on both |
| At least 11 | 27.5% | — | 27.5% | not on both |
| 4 | 22.7% | 22.7% | — | not on both |
| At least 12 | 19.5% | — | 19.5% | not on both |
| 6 | 19.2% | 19.2% | — | not on both |
| At least 13 | 13.5% | — | 13.5% | not on both |
| 7+ | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| 1 | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| 2 | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [White House](https://whitehouse.gov/), [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com), [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-trump-cabinet-members-will-leave-before-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-more-people-leave-the-trump-cabinet-this-year?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxcabdepart?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-trump-cabinet-members-will-leave-before-2028

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.