# How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many UKMTO notices November 2–8?". 4-7 leads at 43.5%. Next is 8-11 at 32.9%. $3K has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:05:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 4-7 | 43.5% | 49.5% |
| 8-11 | 32.9% | 37.5% |
| 12-15 | 17.1% | 19.5% |
| 16+ | 3.7% | 4.2% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 3.2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ukmto.org](https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from November 2, 2026, through November 8, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page.

All notice types will count, including warnings, advisories, suspicious activity notices, and attack reports, including time-late reports of incidents that occurred before November 2, 2026 (UTC). Each notice will be counted once.

Updates to, corrections of, or reissues of a previously published notice will not count as separate notices, including any subsequent notice that updates or provides additional information on an incident already reported by UKMTO.

Only notices published by UKMTO will count. Maritime incidents that are not the subject of a UKMTO notice published within the specified period will not count, regardless of whether they occurred or are reported by other sources.

This market will resolve as soon as all notices for the specified period have been published. Notices published after November 8, 2026 (UTC) will not be considered, even if they relate to incidents within the specified period.

The resolution source for this market will be UKMTO, specifically the Recent Incidents page at https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents. If that page is unavailable, notices published through UKMTO's official channels may be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-ukmto-notices-november-28
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-ukmto-notices-november-28?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-ukmto-notices-november-28

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.