# How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many votes will Hakeem Jeffries get on first ballot?". 270-274 leads at 33.5%. Next is 250-254 at 27.5%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 4, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T22:43:03Z (7 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 4, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 270-274 | 33.5% | 33.5% |
| 250-254 | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| 255-259 | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| 245-249 | 27% | 27% |
| 244 or fewer | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| 260-264 | 22.5% | 22.5% |
| 275-279 | 17.9% | 17.9% |
| 265-269 | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| 280 or more | 2.5% | 2.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

The election for Speaker of the United States House of Representatives is expected to take place on January 3, 2027, on the opening day of the 120th United States Congress.

This market will resolve according to the number of votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries on the first ballot for Speaker of the House for the 120th United States Congress, as announced by the Clerk of the House.

A ballot is a roll call vote of the House to elect a Speaker, as conducted and announced by the Clerk of the House. Quorum calls and votes on procedural motions (such as motions to adjourn) are not ballots. Only votes cast for Hakeem Jeffries by name on the first such ballot will count, regardless of whether he is elected on that ballot. If Hakeem Jeffries receives no votes on the first ballot, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

If a person other than Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If Hakeem Jeffries is elected on the first ballot via a procedure that does not produce a recorded tally of votes, this market will resolve  to the highest bracket. If no ballot to elect the Speaker of the 120th Congress has taken place by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official roll call votes for the election of the Speaker published by the Clerk of the US House of Representatives (clerk.house.gov), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-votes-will-hakeem-jeffries-get-on-first-ballot
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-votes-will-hakeem-jeffries-get-on-first-ballot?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-votes-will-hakeem-jeffries-get-on-first-ballot

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.