# How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many votes will Jeffries get on the first Speaker ballot?". At least 240 leads at 95%. Next is At least 243 at 89.5%. $6K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T02:32:05Z (11 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 240 | 95% | 95% |
| At least 243 | 89.5% | 89.5% |
| At least 246 | 80% | 80% |
| At least 249 | 73% | 73% |
| At least 252 | 64% | 64% |
| At least 255 | 39% | 39% |
| At least 258 | 19% | 19% |
| At least 261 | 8% | 8% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/Votes).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-votes-will-jeffries-get-on-the-first-speaker-ballot
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxjeffriesvotes?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-votes-will-jeffries-get-on-the-first-speaker-ballot

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.