# How many votes will Van Hollen get on the first Senate leader ballot?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How many votes will Van Hollen get on the first Senate leader ballot?". At least 8 leads at 82%. Next is At least 12 at 73%. $4K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:17:41Z (18 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 8 | 82% | 82% |
| At least 12 | 73% | 73% |
| At least 16 | 64% | 64% |
| At least 20 | 19% | 19% |
| At least 24 | 18% | 18% |
| At least 22 | 15% | 15% |
| At least 32 | 11% | 11% |
| At least 28 | 10% | 10% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Senate Democrats](https://www.democrats.senate.gov/), [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-many-votes-will-van-hollen-get-on-the-first-senate-leader-ballot
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvanhollenvotes?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-many-votes-will-van-hollen-get-on-the-first-senate-leader-ballot

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.