# How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How much will be spent on political ads in the 2026 cycle?". Above 11 billion dollars leads at 99%. Next is Above 11.25 billion dollars at 95%. $15K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Feb 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $15K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Above 11 billion dollars | 99% | 99% |
| Above 11.25 billion dollars | 95% | 95% |
| Above 11.5 billion dollars | 91% | 91% |
| Above 11.75 billion dollars | 83% | 83% |
| Above 12 billion dollars | 57% | 57% |
| Above 12.25 billion dollars | 39% | 39% |
| Above 12.5 billion dollars | 18% | 18% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [AdImpact](https://adimpact.com/reports).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-much-will-be-spent-on-political-ads-in-the-2026-cycle
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxadspend?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-much-will-be-spent-on-political-ads-in-the-2026-cycle

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.