# How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by November 30?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by November 30?". 6.5+ leads at 95.8%. Next is 7.0+ at 66%. $6K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:15:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: climate

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 6.5+ | 95.8% | 95.8% |
| 7.0+ | 66% | 66% |
| 7.5+ | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| 8.0+ | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| 8.5+ | 5.3% | 5.3% |
| 9.0+ | 3.6% | 3.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [earthquake.usgs.gov](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).

## Settlement rules

This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".

A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.

If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.

Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.

The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-strong-of-an-earthquake-will-occur-worldwide-by-november-30
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/how-strong-of-an-earthquake-will-occur-worldwide-by-november-30?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-strong-of-an-earthquake-will-occur-worldwide-by-november-30

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.