# How strong will In-fa be?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "How strong will In-fa be?". Violent leads at 0.7%. $8K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:56:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 11, 2026
- Volume traded: $8K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Violent | 0.7% | 0.7% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [jma.go.jp](https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).

## Settlement rules

This event contains two independent markets, each with its own resolution source. Every market in this event may resolve to "No".

"Violent": This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns In-fa the intensity class "Violent" (10-minute sustained winds of 105 kt or more) in the "Intensity" field of any analysis it publishes for the storm (JMA typhoon number 2631) by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en.

"Super Typhoon": This market will resolve to "Yes" immediately once the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issues a Tropical Cyclone Warning for In-fa (JTWC tropical cyclone 30W) whose title designates the storm a "Super Typhoon" (1-minute sustained winds of 130 kt or more), provided that warning is issued by November 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html.

For both markets, only the operational analysis or warning issued by the named agency by the deadline counts. Forecast entries, other agencies' classifications, and post-season best track data will not be considered for resolution. Once a qualifying analysis or warning has been issued, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of subsequent revisions, unless the issuing agency corrects it as erroneous before that market resolves. If the agency stops issuing analyses or warnings for In-fa without a qualifying classification, the relevant market will resolve to "No" at that time. No substitute data provider will be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/how-strong-will-in-fa-be
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/what-intensity-will-in-fa-reach?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/how-strong-will-in-fa-be

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.