# Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Howard Lutnick out as Commerce Secretary?". Before Jan 1, 2029 leads at 97%. Next is Before Jul 1, 2028 at 96%. $31K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T20:10:31Z (11 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2029
- Volume traded: $31K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 97% | 97% |
| Before Jul 1, 2028 | 96% | 96% |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 92% | 92% |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 89% | 89% |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 85% | 85% |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 79% | 79% |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 73% | 73% |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 67% | 67% |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 55% | 55% |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 46% | 46% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [U.S. Department of Commerce](https://www.commerce.gov/), [The White House](https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/cabinet/), [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/howard-lutnick-out-as-commerce-secretary-1
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlutnickout?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/howard-lutnick-out-as-commerce-secretary-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.