# Hsinchu City mayoral election winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Hsinchu City mayoral election winner?". Ann Kao leads at 85.9%. Next is Chuang Ching-cheng at 13.8%. $49K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 28, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:16:00Z (3 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 28, 2027
- Volume traded: $49K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Ann Kao | 85.9% | 87.5% | 84% | 3.5 pts |
| Chuang Ching-cheng | 13.8% | 13.2% | 16% | 2.8 pts |
| Ho Chih-yung | 0.3% | 0.2% | 1% | 0.9 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [db.cec.gov.tw](https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Central Election Commission of Taiwan](https://web.cec.gov.tw/central?Menu_id=1392).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/hsinchu-city-mayoral-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hsinchu-city-mayor-election-winner-20260813135716400?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhsinchucitymayor?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/hsinchu-city-mayoral-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.