# Hy4: Text Arena Debut?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Hy4: Text Arena Debut?". 1440+ leads at 76.5%. Next is 1460+ at 32%. $1K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T22:06:03Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jul 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: ai_tech

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 1440+ | 76.5% | 76.5% |
| 1460+ | 32% | 32% |
| 1480+ | 19.5% | 19.5% |
| 1500+ | 6.5% | 6.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [arena.ai](https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Tencent Hy4 model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying model must be Tencent's Hy4, released on November 4, 2026.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.

A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered.

If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard.

A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/hy4-text-arena-debut
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/hy4-text-arena-debut-20261106?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/hy4-text-arena-debut

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.