# Idaho's 2nd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Idaho's 2nd District margin of victory". Simpson, 9+ pts leads at 94.5%. Next is Republican 10-15% at 92.1%. $22K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:07:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $22K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Simpson, 9+ pts | 94.5% | — | 94.5% | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 92.1% | 92.1% | — | not on both |
| Simpson, 15+ pts | 61% | — | 61% | not on both |
| Simpson, 12+ pts | 49% | — | 49% | not on both |
| Simpson, 18+ pts | 43% | — | 43% | not on both |
| Simpson, 24+ pts | 30% | — | 30% | not on both |
| Simpson, 33+ pts | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Simpson, 30+ pts | 9.9% | — | 9.9% | not on both |
| Simpson, 27+ pts | 8.3% | — | 8.3% | not on both |
| Simpson, 21+ pts | 5.1% | — | 5.1% | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5-10% | 4.1% | 4.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 3.3% | 3.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 2.2% | 2.2% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35%+ | 0.2% | 0.2% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Idaho Secretary of State](https://sos.idaho.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/idahos-2nd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/id-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/idahos-2nd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.