# Illinois Republican Senate nominee? (2028): prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Illinois Republican Senate nominee? (2028)". Darren Bailey leads at 16.2%. Next is Kathy Salvi at 16.1%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T00:03:40Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Darren Bailey | 16.2% | 13.5% |
| Kathy Salvi | 16.1% | 13.5% |
| Don Tracy | 13.8% | 11.5% |
| Darin LaHood | 11.9% | 10% |
| Chris Balkema | 10.9% | 9.2% |
| Jeannie Evans | 10.7% | 9% |
| Ted Dabrowski | 10.6% | 8.9% |
| Mike Bost | 9.8% | 8.2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Illinois Republican Party](https://illinoisgop.org/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com), [Decision Desk HQ](https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/illinois-republican-senate-nominee-2028
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxsenatenom?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/illinois-republican-senate-nominee-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.