# Indiana's 8th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Indiana's 8th District margin of victory". Messmer, 8+ pts leads at 93.8%. Next is Republican 5-15% at 49%. $41K has traded across 22 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:12:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $41K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Messmer, 8+ pts | 93.8% | — | 93.8% | not on both |
| Republican 5-15% | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 38% | 38% | — | not on both |
| Messmer, 11+ pts | 17% | — | 17% | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 13.5% | 13.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Messmer, 14+ pts | 2.3% | — | 2.3% | not on both |
| Messmer, 17+ pts | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Messmer, 23+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Messmer, 26+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Messmer, 29+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Messmer, 32+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Messmer, 35+ pts | 1.1% | — | 1.1% | not on both |
| Messmer, 38+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Messmer, 41+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Messmer, 20+ pts | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45%+ | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Indiana Election Division](https://www.in.gov/sos/elections).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/indianas-8th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/in-08-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/indianas-8th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.