# Iowa Democratic presidential caucus winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Democratic presidential caucus winner?". Jon Ossoff leads at 30.5%. Next is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 15.8%. $2K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T14:48:40Z (8 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Jon Ossoff | 30.5% | 28% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 15.8% | 14.5% |
| Gavin Newsom | 14.7% | 13.5% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 9.8% | 9% |
| Andy Beshear | 5.4% | 5% |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.4% | 5% |
| Kamala Harris | 5.4% | 5% |
| Raphael Warnock | 4.3% | 4% |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 2.2% | 2% |
| James Talarico | 2.2% | 2% |
| Mark Kelly | 2.2% | 2% |
| Wes Moore | 2.1% | 2% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Iowa Democratic Party](https://iowademocrats.org/), [Associated Press](https://apnews.com), [Decision Desk HQ](https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/iowa-democratic-presidential-caucus-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdpresprimary?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/iowa-democratic-presidential-caucus-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.