# Iowa Governor: margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Governor: margin of victory". Sand, 1+ pts leads at 99.8%. Next is Sand, 2+ pts at 99.7%. $315K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:20:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $315K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Sand, 1+ pts | 99.8% | — | 99.8% | not on both |
| Sand, 2+ pts | 99.7% | — | 99.7% | not on both |
| Sand, 3+ pts | 99.6% | — | 99.6% | not on both |
| Sand, 4+ pts | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| Sand, 5+ pts | 99.4% | — | 99.4% | not on both |
| Sand, 6+ pts | 99.4% | — | 99.4% | not on both |
| Sand, 8+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| Sand, 7+ pts | 98.8% | — | 98.8% | not on both |
| Sand, 9+ pts | 98.6% | — | 98.6% | not on both |
| Sand, 10+ pts | 97.9% | — | 97.9% | not on both |
| Sand 9-12% | 96.2% | 96.2% | — | not on both |
| Rob Sand, 10-12% | 89% | — | 89% | not on both |
| Sand, 11+ pts | 40% | — | 40% | not on both |
| Rob Sand, 6-8% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Rob Sand, 8-10% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Rob Sand, 12-14% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Sand, 12+ pts | 1.9% | — | 1.9% | not on both |
| Sand 12%+ | 1.7% | 1.7% | — | not on both |
| Lahn 3-6% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Lahn 0-3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Lahn 12%+ | 1.4% | 1.4% | — | not on both |
| Rob Sand, ≥14% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Rob Sand, 0-2% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Rob Sand, 2-4% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Rob Sand, 4-6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Sand 6-9% | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| Sand, 15+ pts | 0.7% | — | 0.7% | not on both |
| Sand 3-6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Lahn 6-9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Lahn 9-12% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Sand 0-3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Iowa Secretary of State](https://sos.iowa.gov).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/iowa-governor-margin-of-victory-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-governor-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/iowa-governor-margin-of-victory-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.