# Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Winner 2028". John McEntee leads at 35%. Next is Donald Trump at 31.6%. $1K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 8, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T22:43:31Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 8, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| John McEntee | 35% | 35% |
| Donald Trump | 31.6% | 31.6% |
| J.D. Vance | 31.5% | 31.5% |
| Marco Rubio | 30.5% | 30.5% |
| Pete Hegseth | 29.8% | 29.8% |
| Ron DeSantis | 28% | 28% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Tom Cotton | 26.6% | 26.6% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 24.3% | 24.3% |
| Tucker Carlson | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 21.8% | 21.8% |
| Josh Hawley | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| Thomas Massie | 17% | 17% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Ted Cruz | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Brian Kemp | 6% | 6% |
| Ivanka Trump | 6% | 6% |
| Rand Paul | 6% | 6% |
| Elon Musk | 5.4% | 5.4% |
| Greg Abbott | 0.6% | 0.6% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Iowa is expected to hold a Republican presidential primary or caucus in 2028.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most votes in the Iowa Republican primary, caucus, or other official voting process by which the Iowa public directs the voting of delegates for the selection of the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.

If the relevant delegate selection process is a caucus or other multi-round process, the relevant vote count will be the final round vote count that determines the apportionment of statewide delegates.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If no 2028 Iowa primary, caucus, or comparable process takes place, or if the results are not definitively known by the earliest of November 7, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or the first day of the 2028 Republican convention, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the complete results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/iowa-republican-presidential-caucus-winner-2028
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-presidential-republican-caucus-winner-202610282?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/iowa-republican-presidential-caucus-winner-2028

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.