# Iowa Republican presidential caucus winner?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Republican presidential caucus winner?". J.D. Vance leads at 33.3%. Next is Marco Rubio at 20.6%. $1K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-10T21:54:05Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 7, 2028
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| J.D. Vance | 33.3% | 34% |
| Marco Rubio | 20.6% | 21% |
| Ron DeSantis | 11.8% | 12% |
| Glenn Youngkin | 4.9% | 5% |
| Ted Cruz | 4.9% | 5% |
| Thomas Massie | 4.9% | 5% |
| Tucker Carlson | 4.9% | 5% |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Ivanka Trump | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.9% | 3% |
| Brian Kemp | 1% | 1% |
| Byron Donalds | 1% | 1% |
| Joe Kent | 1% | 1% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 1% | 1% |
| Nikki Haley | 1% | 1% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Republican Party of Iowa](https://iowagop.org/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/iowa-republican-presidential-caucus-winner
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxrpresprimary?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/iowa-republican-presidential-caucus-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.