# Iowa Senate: margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Iowa Senate: margin of victory". Turek, 2+ pts leads at 99.7%. Next is Turek, 1.5+ pts at 99.6%. $368K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:16:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $368K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Turek, 2+ pts | 99.7% | — | 99.7% | not on both |
| Turek, 1.5+ pts | 99.6% | — | 99.6% | not on both |
| Turek, 0.5+ pts | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| Turek, 1+ pts | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| Turek, 2.5+ pts | 98.8% | — | 98.8% | not on both |
| Turek, 3+ pts | 97.6% | — | 97.6% | not on both |
| Turek 3-6% | 96.3% | 96.3% | — | not on both |
| Turek, 4+ pts | 80% | — | 80% | not on both |
| Josh Turek, 4-6% | 69% | — | 69% | not on both |
| Josh Turek, 2-4% | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Turek, 5+ pts | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Turek, 9+ pts | 6.5% | — | 6.5% | not on both |
| Turek, 8+ pts | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |
| Turek, 7+ pts | 4.7% | — | 4.7% | not on both |
| Turek, 10+ pts | 2.4% | — | 2.4% | not on both |
| Turek, 6+ pts | 1.8% | — | 1.8% | not on both |
| Turek 12%+ | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Turek 0-3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Turek 6-9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | — | not on both |
| Hinson 3-6% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |
| Josh Turek, ≥8% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Josh Turek, 0-2% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Josh Turek, 6-8% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Hinson 0-3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Hinson 6-9% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Turek 9-12% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| Hinson 9-12% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Hinson 12%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Iowa Secretary of State](https://sos.iowa.gov).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/iowa-senate-margin-of-victory-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/iowa-senate-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/iowa-senate-margin-of-victory-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.