# ISM Manufacturing PMI - November 2026: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "ISM Manufacturing PMI - November 2026". 54.0 to 54.9 leads at 30%. Next is 53.0 to 53.9 at 25.5%. $4K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:25:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 54.0 to 54.9 | 30% | 30% |
| 53.0 to 53.9 | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| 57.0 to 57.9 | 25% | 25% |
| 58.0 to 58.9 | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| 55.0 to 55.9 | 20% | 20% |
| 56.0 to 56.9 | 14% | 14% |
| 52.0 to 52.9 | 12% | 12% |
| 52.0 | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 59.0+ | 2.5% | 2.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This is a market about the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Manufacturing PMI for November 2026 according to the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business.

The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business released for November 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on December 1, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Manufacturing PMI registered 52.7 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.

Note: The ISM Manufacturing PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Manufacturing PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/ism-manufacturing-pmi-november-2026
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ism-manufacturing-pmi-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/ism-manufacturing-pmi-november-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.