# Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Israel Election: Likud or Yashar in Government?". Yes leads at 42.5%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T00:37:25Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Mar 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 42.5% | 42.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Likud" if Likud is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Yashar is not.

This market will resolve to "Yashar" if Yashar is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election and Likud is not.

If both parties or neither party are included in that government, or if no government is formed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/israel-election-likud-or-yashar-in-government
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-likud-or-yashar-in-government?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/israel-election-likud-or-yashar-in-government

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.