# Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?". Yes leads at 22%. $4K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:16:00Z (9 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2028
- Volume traded: $4K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Yes | 22% | 22% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset took place on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Likud and Yashar! are included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election, regardless of whether any other parties are also included in that government. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Yashar! refers to the political party led by Gadi Eisenkot. If Yashar! contests the election as part of a joint list or alliance, Yashar! will be considered included in the government if at least one member of Yashar! serves as a Minister.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/israel-election-yashar-and-likud-in-coalition
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-election-yashar-and-likud-in-coalition?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/israel-election-yashar-and-likud-in-coalition

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.