# Israel military action against Lebanon on...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Israel military action against Lebanon on...?". November 13 leads at 90.5%. Next is November 26 at 80%. $121K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 14, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-13T02:48:40Z (12 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 14, 2026
- Volume traded: $121K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| November 13 | 90.5% | 90.5% |
| November 26 | 80% | 80% |
| November 19 | 79.5% | 79.5% |
| November 30 | 79.5% | 79.5% |
| November 18 | 79% | 79% |
| November 15 | 78.5% | 78.5% |
| November 14 | 78% | 78% |
| November 16 | 78% | 78% |
| November 24 | 76.5% | 76.5% |
| November 25 | 76% | 76% |
| November 28 | 76% | 76% |
| November 22 | 75.5% | 75.5% |
| November 20 | 74.5% | 74.5% |
| November 21 | 74.5% | 74.5% |
| November 23 | 74.5% | 74.5% |
| November 29 | 74.5% | 74.5% |
| November 17 | 74% | 74% |
| November 27 | 73.5% | 73.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.

The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.

Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.

“Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify.

The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Jerusalem time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-3
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-november-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/israel-military-action-against-lebanon-on-3

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.