# Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?". December 31 leads at 27.5%. Next is November 30 at 11.5%. $1K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T11:23:20Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $1K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 27.5% | 27.5% |
| November 30 | 11.5% | 11.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting between Israel and Lebanon between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement.

A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location.

Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries separately held alongside such a convening.

The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments.

The occurrence of a qualifying meeting must be confirmed by the resolution sources by the resolution date.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt-20261022?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/israel-x-lebanon-diplomatic-meeting-by-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.