# JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "JD Vance announces a presidential run by...?". June 30, 2027 leads at 47%. Next is JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican at 32%. $16K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:21:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Apr 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $16K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| June 30, 2027 | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| JD Vance: Republican, Marco Rubio: Republican | 32% | — | 32% | not on both |
| March 31, 2027 | 16% | 16% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Marco Rubio](https://x.com/marcorubio), [JD Vance](https://x.com/JDVance).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if J.D. Vance officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by J.D. Vance will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by J.D. Vance (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/jd-vance-announces-a-presidential-run-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jd-vance-announces-a-presidential-run-byptptpt?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxvancerubiorun?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/jd-vance-announces-a-presidential-run-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.