# Jonathan Powell out as UK National Security Adviser by...?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Jonathan Powell out as UK National Security Adviser by...?". December 31 leads at 30%. $3K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:07:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Jan 1, 2027
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| December 31 | 30% | 30% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jonathan Powell ceases to be the UK National Security Adviser for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Powell's resignation, removal, or other formal departure from this position before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal/departure goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Jonathan Powell or the government of the UK, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/jonathan-powell-out-as-uk-national-security-adviser-by
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/jonathan-powell-out-as-uk-national-security-adviser-by?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/jonathan-powell-out-as-uk-national-security-adviser-by

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.