# Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid: Method of Victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid: Method of Victory". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 79.5%. Next is Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid at 75.5%. $25K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-07T21:17:03Z (6 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 22, 2026
- Volume traded: $25K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 79.5% | 79.5% | — | not on both |
| Keiichiro Nakamura vs. Ollie Schmid | 75.5% | 75.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 64% | 64% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 3? | 59% | 59% | — | not on both |
| Keiichiro Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ | 57% | — | 57% | not on both |
| Nakamura to win by KO/TKO? | 55.5% | 55.5% | — | not on both |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 51.5% | 51.5% | — | not on both |
| Ends before Round 2? | 36.5% | 36.5% | — | not on both |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 34.5% | 34.5% | — | not on both |
| Nakamura in Round 1 | 31.5% | 31.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 27.5% | 27.5% | — | not on both |
| Decision or Draw | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by decision? | 26.5% | 26.5% | — | not on both |
| Nakamura in Round 2 | 19.5% | 19.5% | — | not on both |
| Keiichiro Nakamura by Decision | 16% | — | 16% | not on both |
| Ollie Schmid by Decision | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Nakamura in Round 3 | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| Fight won by submission? | 9.5% | 9.5% | — | not on both |
| Ollie Schmid by KO/TKO/DQ | 9% | — | 9% | not on both |
| Schmid to win by KO/TKO? | 9% | 9% | — | not on both |
| Schmid in Round 1 | 5% | 5% | — | not on both |
| Schmid in Round 2 | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Schmid in Round 3 | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Keiichiro Nakamura by Submission | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Ollie Schmid by Submission | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Draw/No Contest | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ufc.com](https://www.ufc.com/events).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com), [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com), [Paramount+](https://www.paramountplus.com/home/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/keiichiro-nakamura-vs-ollie-schmid-method-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ufc-kei10-oschmi-2026-11-07?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxufcmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/keiichiro-nakamura-vs-ollie-schmid-method-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.