# Kentucky's 1st District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Kentucky's 1st District margin of victory". Comer, 34+ pts leads at 74%. Next is Republican 35-40% at 55.5%. $23K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-06T01:09:03Z (50 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $23K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Comer, 34+ pts | 74% | — | 74% | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 55.5% | 55.5% | — | not on both |
| Comer, 28+ pts | 50.8% | — | 50.8% | not on both |
| Comer, 31+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Comer, 37+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Comer, 43+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Comer, 40+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Comer, 49+ pts | 49.5% | — | 49.5% | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 45-50% | 21.9% | 21.9% | — | not on both |
| Comer, 46+ pts | 19% | — | 19% | not on both |
| Comer, 52+ pts | 11% | — | 11% | not on both |
| Republican 0-15% | 3.7% | 3.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 3.2% | 3.2% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-25% | 2.7% | 2.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 2.6% | 2.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 50-55% | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 55%+ | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Kentucky State Board of Elections](https://elect.ky.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/kentuckys-1st-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ky-01-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/kentuckys-1st-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.