# Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Larger Senate margin: Hinson or Marshall?". Roger Marshall leads at 24%. Next is Ashley Hinson at 5%. $18K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:15:00Z (6 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $18K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Roger Marshall | 24% | 24% |
| Ashley Hinson | 5% | 5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Iowa Secretary of State](https://electionresults.iowa.gov/IA/), [Kansas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.ks.gov/elections/election-results.html).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/larger-senate-margin-hinson-or-marshall
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhinsonmarshall?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/larger-senate-margin-hinson-or-marshall

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.