# Las Vegas Grand Prix: Driver Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Las Vegas Grand Prix: Driver Winner". Max Verstappen leads at 32.5%. Next is Kimi Antonelli at 23.1%. $75K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T05:17:41Z (17 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $75K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Max Verstappen | 32.5% | 37% | 38% | 1.0 pts |
| Kimi Antonelli | 23.1% | 26.5% | 27% | 0.5 pts |
| Lando Norris | 11.6% | 12% | 14% | 2.0 pts |
| George Russell | 10.4% | 12.5% | 12% | 0.5 pts |
| Charles Leclerc | 4.3% | 5% | 5% | 0.0 pts |
| Lewis Hamilton | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4% | 0.5 pts |
| Oscar Piastri | 2.6% | 3% | 3% | 0.1 pts |
| Isack Hadjar | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2% | 0.3 pts |
| Ryo Hirakawa | 0.8% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Alexander Albon | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Arvid Lindblad | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Franco Colapinto | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0.7% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Pierre Gasly | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Lance Stroll | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Liam Lawson | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Oliver Bearman | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Sergio Perez | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1% | 0.5 pts |
| Esteban Ocon | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [formula1.com](https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [FIA](https://www.fia.com).

## Settlement rules

This is a polymarket on the winner of the 2026 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix, scheduled for Nov 21, 2026.

If the 2026 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix is canceled or rescheduled to a date after Nov 28, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Final Classification published by the FIA following the conclusion of the race. The Final Classification is typically released 30-60 minutes after the race ends and includes any applied time penalties and official adjustments.

Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the Final Classification will not affect market resolution. The timing of the podium ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only the FIA's published classification will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source will be the official Formula 1 website and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/f1-las-vegas-grand-prix-winner-2026-11-21?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxf1race?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/las-vegas-grand-prix-driver-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.