# Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Laurier—Sainte-Marie By-Election Winner". Liberal leads at 78%. Next is Guy Cormier at 74%. $3K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 7, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:26:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 7, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Liberal | 78% | — | 78% | not on both |
| Guy Cormier | 74% | 74% | — | not on both |
| Zumretay Arkin | 22.5% | 22.5% | — | not on both |
| Bloc | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| NDP | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Nimâ Machouf | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Mathieu Fournier | 6% | 6% | — | not on both |
| Conservative | 3.5% | — | 3.5% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Elections Canada](https://www.elections.ca/).

## Settlement rules

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Laurier—Sainte-Marie is currently scheduled to be held on December 7, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Laurier—Sainte-Marie by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/lauriersainte-marie-by-election-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/lauriersainte-marie-by-election-winner-1793634150133?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlaurierby?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/lauriersainte-marie-by-election-winner

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.