# Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Los Angeles mayoral election margin of victory?". Nithya Raman, 6-8% leads at 58%. Next is Raman 0-4% at 50%. $94K has traded across 29 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:27:00Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $94K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Nithya Raman, 6-8% | 58% | — | 58% | not on both |
| Raman 0-4% | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Raman 4-8% | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | not on both |
| Bass 4-8% | 36.6% | 36.6% | — | not on both |
| Bass 0-4% | 25.7% | 25.7% | — | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 8-10% | 20% | — | 20% | not on both |
| Raman 8-12% | 14.2% | 14.2% | — | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 4-6% | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 2-4% | 12% | — | 12% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 0-2% | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Raman 12-16% | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |
| Bass 12-16% | 2.1% | 2.1% | — | not on both |
| Karen Bass, 0-2% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 10-12% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 12-14% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Raman 16-20% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Karen Bass, ≥12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Karen Bass, 2-4% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Karen Bass, 4-6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Karen Bass, 6-8% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Karen Bass, 8-10% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Karen Bass, 10-12% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, ≥18% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 14-16% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Nithya Raman, 16-18% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Raman 20+% | 0.6% | 0.6% | — | not on both |
| Bass 20+% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Bass 8-12% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Bass 16-20% | 0.3% | 0.3% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk](https://www.lavote.gov/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/los-angeles-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/la-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxlamayormov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/los-angeles-mayoral-election-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.