# Mainz vs Bayern Munich: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Mainz vs Bayern Munich". Bayern Munich leads at 73.3%. Next is Draw at 14%. $33K has traded across 3 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 9, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:59:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 9, 2026
- Volume traded: $33K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bayern Munich | 73.3% | 73.5% | 74% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 14% | 14.5% | 14% | 0.5 pts |
| Mainz | 12.7% | 12.5% | 13% | 0.5 pts |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [bundesliga.com](https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/), [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/mainz-vs-bayern-munich-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/bun-mai-bay-2026-11-07?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxbundesligagame?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/mainz-vs-bayern-munich-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.