# Major news story in Nov 2026?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Major news story in Nov 2026?". At least 3 leads at 89%. Next is At least 5 at 40%. $2K has traded across 4 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:22:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $2K
- Venues: Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Kalshi |
| --- | --- | --- |
| At least 3 | 89% | 89% |
| At least 5 | 40% | 40% |
| At least 10 | 20% | 20% |
| At least 15 | 7% | 7% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [New York Times](https://store.nytimes.com/collections/new-york-times-page-reprints/products/new-york-times-front-page-reprint).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/major-news-story-in-nov-2026
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxnythead?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/major-news-story-in-nov-2026

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.