# Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Spread: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Manchester United vs Aston Villa: Spread". Manchester United FC leads at 44.5%. Next is Aston Villa FC at 29.5%. $56K has traded across 44 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 10, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-05T01:26:00Z (1 d ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 10, 2026
- Volume traded: $56K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Manchester United FC | 44.5% | 44.5% | — | not on both |
| Aston Villa FC | 29.5% | 29.5% | — | not on both |
| Draw (Manchester United FC vs. Aston Villa FC) | 25.5% | 25.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United wins by more than 1.5 goals | 24% | — | 24% | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 5 - 4 Aston Villa FC | 15.1% | 15.1% | — | not on both |
| Any Other Score | 15% | 15% | — | not on both |
| Aston Villa wins by more than 1.5 goals | 14% | — | 14% | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 0 - 5 Aston Villa FC | 14% | 14% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 1 - 5 Aston Villa FC | 14% | 14% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 3 - 5 Aston Villa FC | 14% | 14% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 5 - 0 Aston Villa FC | 14% | 14% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 5 - 1 Aston Villa FC | 14% | 14% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 5 - 3 Aston Villa FC | 14% | 14% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 4 - 5 Aston Villa FC | 13.8% | 13.8% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC | 11.5% | 11.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United wins by more than 1.5 goals | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC | 9.5% | 9.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 0 - 4 Aston Villa FC | 8.5% | 8.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 4 - 0 Aston Villa FC | 8.5% | 8.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 4 - 3 Aston Villa FC | 8.5% | 8.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 2 - 2 Aston Villa FC | 7.5% | 7.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC | 7% | 7% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 2 - 0 Aston Villa FC | 6.5% | 6.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 0 - 1 Aston Villa FC | 5.8% | 5.8% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 3 - 1 Aston Villa FC | 5.1% | 5.1% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 0 - 0 Aston Villa FC | 4.8% | 4.8% | — | not on both |
| Aston Villa wins by more than 1.5 goals | 4.5% | — | 4.5% | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 1 - 4 Aston Villa FC | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 2 - 5 Aston Villa FC | 4.5% | 4.5% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 5 - 5 Aston Villa FC | 4% | 4% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 3 - 4 Aston Villa FC | 3.9% | 3.9% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 0 - 2 Aston Villa FC | 3.8% | 3.8% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 3 - 0 Aston Villa FC | 3.7% | 3.7% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 3 - 2 Aston Villa FC | 3.6% | 3.6% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 4 - 4 Aston Villa FC | 3.4% | 3.4% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 1 - 3 Aston Villa FC | 3.2% | 3.2% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 2 - 3 Aston Villa FC | 2.9% | 2.9% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 2 - 4 Aston Villa FC | 2% | 2% | — | not on both |
| Manchester United FC 0 - 3 Aston Villa FC | 1.7% | 1.7% | — | not on both |

Showing the top 40 of 44 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [premierleague.com](https://www.premierleague.com/).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Fox Sports](https://www.foxsports.com), [ESPN](https://espn.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/manchester-united-vs-aston-villa-spread
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/epl-mun-ast-2026-11-08?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxeplspread?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/manchester-united-vs-aston-villa-spread

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.