# Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula: Set 1 Winner: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula: Set 1 Winner". Jessica Pegula leads at 60%. Next is WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 at 58%. $22K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 24, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-10T16:44:05Z (13 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 24, 2026
- Volume traded: $22K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Jessica Pegula | 60% | — | 60% | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 58% | 58% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 54% | 54% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 52.5% | 52.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 47.5% | 47.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 43% | 43% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| Marta Kostyuk | 41% | — | 41% | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 41% | 41% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 38.5% | 38.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 37.5% | 37.5% | — | not on both |
| WTA Finals, Group A: Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula Match O/U 22.5 | 20.5% | 20.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [wtatennis.com](https://www.wtatennis.com/scores).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [WTA](https://www.wtatennis.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/marta-kostyuk-vs-jessica-pegula-set-1-winner
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/wta-kostyuk-pegula-2026-11-10?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxwtasetwinner?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/marta-kostyuk-vs-jessica-pegula-set-1-winner

---
Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.