# Martineau vs Gaston: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Martineau vs Gaston". Hugo Gaston leads at 63%. Next is Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston at 58.5%. $5K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T07:23:05Z (4 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 25, 2026
- Volume traded: $5K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Hugo Gaston | 63% | — | 63% | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 58.5% | 58.5% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 55.5% | 55.5% | — | not on both |
| Completed Match | 53% | 53% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 45.5% | 45.5% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 42.5% | 42.5% | — | not on both |
| Matteo Martineau | 38% | — | 38% | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 37.5% | 37.5% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 37.5% | 37.5% | — | not on both |
| Orleans: Matteo Martineau vs Hugo Gaston | 20.5% | 20.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/martineau-vs-gaston
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-martin-gaston-2026-11-09?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpchallengermatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/martineau-vs-gaston

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.