# Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda". Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda leads at 53%. Next is Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda at 52.5%. $13K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 17, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-09T19:53:20Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 17, 2026
- Volume traded: $13K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 53% | 53% | — | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 52.5% | 52.5% | — | not on both |
| Niels McDonald | 51% | — | 51% | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 50% | 50% | — | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 47% | 47% | — | not on both |
| Koki Matsuda | 46% | — | 46% | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 41.5% | 41.5% | — | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 38% | 38% | — | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 32% | 32% | — | not on both |
| Matsuyama: Niels McDonald vs Koki Matsuda | 31.5% | 31.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Niels McDonald and Koki Matsuda in the Matsuyama, originally scheduled for November 9, 2026 at 9:30PM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Niels McDonald' if Niels McDonald advances against Koki Matsuda.

This market will resolve to 'Koki Matsuda' if Koki Matsuda advances against Niels McDonald.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/matsuyama-niels-mcdonald-vs-koki-matsuda
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-mcdona-matsuda-2026-11-09?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpchallengermatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/matsuyama-niels-mcdonald-vs-koki-matsuda

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.