# Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Mayor Combo: Taipei and New Taipei". KMT sweep leads at 46.6%. Next is KMT sweep at 26%. $3K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 29, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:18:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 29, 2026
- Volume traded: $3K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| KMT sweep | 46.6% | 48.5% |
| KMT sweep | 26% | 27% |
| DPP sweep | 20.2% | 21% |
| DPP sweep | 7.2% | 7.5% |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume, with each venue's margin removed so outcomes add to 100%. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve according to the outcome of the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections that are currently scheduled for November 28, 2026.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “KMT” or “DPP” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".

For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.

This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/mayor-combo-taipei-and-new-taipei
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mayor-combo-taipei-and-new-taipei?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/mayor-combo-taipei-and-new-taipei

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.