# Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Measles cases in U.S. by November 30?". 5000+ leads at 99.2%. Next is Above 5000 at 99%. $1.2M has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:13:11Z (58 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Dec 1, 2026
- Volume traded: $1.2M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5000+ | 99.2% | 99.2% | — | not on both |
| Above 5000 | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| 5600+ | 83.5% | 83.5% | — | not on both |
| Above 6000 | 82% | — | 82% | not on both |
| 5800+ | 52% | 52% | — | not on both |
| Above 7000 | 51% | — | 51% | not on both |
| 6000+ | 40% | 40% | — | not on both |
| Above 8000 | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Above 9000 | 13% | — | 13% | not on both |
| Above 10000 | 6% | — | 6% | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [cdc.gov](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html).

## Settlement rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/measles-cases-in-us-by-november-30
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-uptspt-by-november-30?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmeasles?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/measles-cases-in-us-by-november-30

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.