# Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 4 Seeds: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Men's College Basketball Tournament: Top 4 Seeds". Marquette leads at 91%. Next is Michigan St. at 66.5%. $101K has traded across 117 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by May 2, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-11T16:14:21Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: May 2, 2027
- Volume traded: $101K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Marquette | 91% | — | 91% | not on both |
| Michigan St. | 66.5% | — | 66.5% | not on both |
| Florida | 54.3% | 14.5% | 94% | 79.5 pts |
| UConn | 44.7% | 9.4% | 80% | 70.6 pts |
| Kansas | 41.1% | 7.6% | 74.5% | 66.9 pts |
| Duke | 36.1% | 15.5% | 98% | 82.5 pts |
| Houston | 32.7% | 2.8% | 62.5% | 59.7 pts |
| Virginia | 30% | 3.5% | 56.5% | 53.0 pts |
| Illinois | 28.5% | 9% | 87% | 78.0 pts |
| Texas | 27.8% | 4.1% | 51.5% | 47.4 pts |
| Texas Tech | 27.6% | 4.8% | 50.5% | 45.8 pts |
| Iowa St. | 27.5% | — | 27.5% | not on both |
| UCLA | 26.8% | 2.1% | 51.5% | 49.4 pts |
| Alabama | 24.7% | 1.8% | 47.5% | 45.7 pts |
| Louisville | 23.9% | 3.4% | 44.5% | 41.1 pts |
| St. John's | 20.8% | 1.1% | 40.5% | 39.5 pts |
| Vanderbilt | 19.6% | 0.7% | 38.5% | 37.9 pts |
| Nebraska | 18% | 1.4% | 34.5% | 33.1 pts |
| Auburn | 17.5% | — | 17.5% | not on both |
| Arizona | 16.8% | 5.4% | 51% | 45.6 pts |
| Baylor | 16.5% | — | 16.5% | not on both |
| Gonzaga | 15.9% | 3.3% | 54% | 50.8 pts |
| Miami | 15.2% | 3.8% | 26.5% | 22.7 pts |
| Michigan | 13.6% | 1.7% | 25.5% | 23.8 pts |
| Ole Miss | 13.5% | — | 13.5% | not on both |
| Arkansas | 13.2% | 3.9% | 22.5% | 18.6 pts |
| Tennessee | 13.1% | 0.6% | 25.5% | 24.9 pts |
| Ohio St. | 11.5% | — | 11.5% | not on both |
| Virginia Tech | 11.5% | — | 11.5% | not on both |
| Xavier | 11.5% | — | 11.5% | not on both |
| Texas A&M | 11.1% | 0.8% | 21.5% | 20.8 pts |
| BYU | 10.1% | 1.7% | 18.5% | 16.8 pts |
| USC | 9.6% | 0.7% | 18.5% | 17.8 pts |
| Michigan State | 9% | 9% | — | not on both |
| Cincinnati | 7.5% | — | 7.5% | not on both |
| Kentucky | 7% | 1.5% | 12.5% | 11.0 pts |
| Missouri | 6.5% | 1% | 23% | 22.0 pts |
| NC St. | 6.5% | — | 6.5% | not on both |
| Purdue | 6.1% | 0.6% | 11.5% | 10.9 pts |
| Wisconsin | 5.8% | 0.2% | 11.5% | 11.3 pts |

Showing the top 40 of 117 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [ncaa.com](https://www.ncaa.com).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA](https://www.ncaa.com/sports/basketball-men/d1), [ESPN](https://www.espn.com).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/mens-college-basketball-tournament-top-4-seeds
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/2027-mens-college-basketball-national-champion?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmarmadseed?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/mens-college-basketball-tournament-top-4-seeds

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.