# Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax". Grenier leads at 75.7%. Next is Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 at 69.5%. $7K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 22, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-15T10:48:41Z (10 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 22, 2026
- Volume traded: $7K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: sports

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Grenier | 75.7% | 75.5% | 76% | 0.5 pts |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 69.5% | 69.5% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 51.5% | 51.5% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 51% | 51% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 43% | 43% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 32% | 32% | — | not on both |
| Florent Bax | 25% | — | 25% | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 25% | 25% | — | not on both |
| Metz: Hugo Grenier vs Florent Bax Match O/U 22.5 | 13.5% | 13.5% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle. Sources: [atptour.com](https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current).
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [ATP](https://www.atptour.com/).

## Settlement rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Hugo Grenier and Florent Bax in the Metz, France, Qualifying, originally scheduled for November 15, 2026 at 6:20AM ET.

This market will resolve to 'Hugo Grenier' if Hugo Grenier advances against Florent Bax.

This market will resolve to 'Florent Bax' if Florent Bax advances against Hugo Grenier.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/metz-hugo-grenier-vs-florent-bax
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/atp-grenier-bax-2026-11-15?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxatpchallengermatch?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/metz-hugo-grenier-vs-florent-bax

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.