# Michigan Senate: margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Michigan Senate: margin of victory". El-Sayed, 1.5+ pts leads at 99.9%. Next is El-Sayed, 1+ pts at 99.8%. $3.8M has traded across 33 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:16:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $3.8M
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| El-Sayed, 1.5+ pts | 99.9% | — | 99.9% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 1+ pts | 99.8% | — | 99.8% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 2+ pts | 99.8% | — | 99.8% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 3+ pts | 99.8% | — | 99.8% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 2.5+ pts | 99.7% | — | 99.7% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 3.5+ pts | 99.4% | — | 99.4% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 4+ pts | 99.3% | — | 99.3% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 4.5+ pts | 99.1% | — | 99.1% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 5+ pts | 99% | — | 99% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 5.5+ pts | 98.7% | — | 98.7% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 6+ pts | 97.8% | — | 97.8% | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8% | 89% | — | 89% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 7+ pts | 85% | — | 85% | not on both |
| El-Sayed 6-9% | 80.5% | 80.5% | — | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 8+ pts | 10% | — | 10% | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 8-10% | 7% | — | 7% | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6% | 3% | — | 3% | not on both |
| El-Sayed 3-6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | — | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 9+ pts | 2.1% | — | 2.1% | not on both |
| El-Sayed 12%+ | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed, ≥10% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 0-2% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Abdul El-Sayed, 2-4% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Rogers 0-3% | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 11+ pts | 0.5% | — | 0.5% | not on both |
| El-Sayed 0-3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| El-Sayed 9-12% | 0.5% | 0.5% | — | not on both |
| Rogers 3-6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | — | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 13+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| El-Sayed, 15+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Rogers 6-9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Rogers 9-12% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Rogers 12%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Michigan Department of State](https://www.michigan.gov/sos).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/michigan-senate-margin-of-victory-2
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/michigan-senate-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/michigan-senate-margin-of-victory-2

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.