# Michigan's 2nd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 2nd District margin of victory". Moolenaar, 15+ pts leads at 98.9%. Next is Moolenaar, 18+ pts at 82%. $42K has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T21:07:17Z (just now)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $42K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Moolenaar, 15+ pts | 98.9% | — | 98.9% | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 18+ pts | 82% | — | 82% | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 21+ pts | 63% | — | 63% | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 24+ pts | 53.8% | — | 53.8% | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 36+ pts | 49.3% | — | 49.3% | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 27+ pts | 46% | — | 46% | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 46% | 46% | — | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 45% | 45% | — | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 44.2% | 44.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 10-15% | 43.4% | 43.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 38.9% | 38.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 37.8% | 37.8% | — | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 30+ pts | 29% | — | 29% | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 33+ pts | 22% | — | 22% | not on both |
| Moolenaar, 39+ pts | 8.6% | — | 8.6% | not on both |
| Republican 0-10% | 1.6% | 1.6% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40%+ | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Michigan Department of State](https://www.michigan.gov/sos).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/michigans-2nd-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mi-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/michigans-2nd-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.