# Michigan's 9th District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Michigan's 9th District margin of victory". McClain, 19+ pts leads at 96.3%. Next is McClain, 22+ pts at 86%. $29K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T20:03:00Z (1 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $29K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| McClain, 19+ pts | 96.3% | — | 96.3% | not on both |
| McClain, 22+ pts | 86% | — | 86% | not on both |
| McClain, 25+ pts | 57% | — | 57% | not on both |
| McClain, 28+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| McClain, 31+ pts | 49.4% | — | 49.4% | not on both |
| Republican 25-30% | 49% | 49% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-20% | 46.8% | 46.8% | — | not on both |
| Republican 20-25% | 44.5% | 44.5% | — | not on both |
| McClain, 34+ pts | 34% | — | 34% | not on both |
| McClain, 37+ pts | 18% | — | 18% | not on both |
| Republican 0-5% | 18% | 18% | — | not on both |
| McClain, 40+ pts | 15% | — | 15% | not on both |
| Republican 30-35% | 9.5% | 9.5% | — | not on both |
| McClain, 43+ pts | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Republican 45%+ | 4.9% | 4.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 35-40% | 4.1% | 4.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5-15% | 1% | 1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat Wins | 0.9% | 0.9% | — | not on both |
| Republican 40-45% | 0.8% | 0.8% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Michigan Department of State](https://www.michigan.gov/sos).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/michigans-9th-district-margin-of-victory
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mi-09-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/michigans-9th-district-margin-of-victory

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.