# Minnesota Senate: margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Minnesota Senate: margin of victory". Flanagan, 1+ pts leads at 99.9%. Next is Flanagan, 3+ pts at 99.9%. $566K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:20:00Z (1 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $566K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: politics

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Flanagan, 1+ pts | 99.9% | — | 99.9% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 3+ pts | 99.9% | — | 99.9% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 5+ pts | 99.9% | — | 99.9% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 2+ pts | 99.8% | — | 99.8% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 6+ pts | 99.8% | — | 99.8% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 4+ pts | 99.7% | — | 99.7% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 7+ pts | 99.5% | — | 99.5% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 8+ pts | 99.1% | — | 99.1% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 9+ pts | 95.2% | — | 95.2% | not on both |
| Democrat 10-15% | 74% | 74% | — | not on both |
| Flanagan, 10+ pts | 73% | — | 73% | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, 10-12% | 69% | — | 69% | not on both |
| Democrat 5-10% | 24.5% | 24.5% | — | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, 8-10% | 23% | — | 23% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 11+ pts | 4% | — | 4% | not on both |
| Democrat 0-5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | — | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, ≥14% | 2% | — | 2% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 12+ pts | 1.9% | — | 1.9% | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, 0-2% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, 2-4% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, 4-6% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, 6-8% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Peggy Flanagan, 12-14% | 1% | — | 1% | not on both |
| Democrat 0-5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | — | not on both |
| Flanagan, 14+ pts | 0.6% | — | 0.6% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 13+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 15+ pts | 0.4% | — | 0.4% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 19+ pts | 0.3% | — | 0.3% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 17+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Flanagan, 21+ pts | 0.2% | — | 0.2% | not on both |
| Democrat 15-20% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 20-25% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 25%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |
| Republican 5%+ | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Minnesota Secretary of State](https://www.sos.mn.gov).

## Settlement rules

Kalshi event status: open

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/minnesota-senate-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/minnesota-senate-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgeneralmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/minnesota-senate-margin-of-victory-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.