# Miss Universe 2026: Third Place: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Miss Universe 2026: Third Place". Mexico leads at 30.8%. Next is Aruba at 26%. $6K has traded across 47 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 25, 2026.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:04:00Z (3 h ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 25, 2026
- Volume traded: $6K
- Venues: Polymarket
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Mexico | 30.8% | 30.8% |
| Aruba | 26% | 26% |
| Curaçao | 26% | 26% |
| Cambodia | 25.5% | 25.5% |
| Cameroon | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Pakistan | 24% | 24% |
| Guatemala | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| Peru | 23.5% | 23.5% |
| South Africa | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| Netherlands | 21% | 21% |
| Ecuador | 18% | 18% |
| Bolivia | 16.5% | 16.5% |
| Colombia | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Puerto Rico | 8% | 8% |
| Nigeria | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| Venezuela | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| El Salvador | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Malta | 7% | 7% |
| Egypt | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| Canada | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Zimbabwe | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| Jamaica | 6.1% | 6.1% |
| USA | 5.6% | 5.6% |
| Brazil | 5% | 5% |
| Russia | 5% | 5% |
| Chile | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Philippines | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Spain | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Croatia | 4% | 4% |
| France | 4% | 4% |
| Guadeloupe | 4% | 4% |
| Portugal | 4% | 4% |
| Cuba | 3.9% | 3.9% |
| Nicaragua | 3.5% | 3.5% |
| Finland | 3.4% | 3.4% |
| Haiti | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Namibia | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Nepal | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Costa Rica | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Trinidad and Tobago | 3.3% | 3.3% |

Showing the top 40 of 47 outcomes. 
"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.

## Settlement rules

The Miss Universe 2026 competition is scheduled to be held in Puerto Rico on November 24, 2026. You can find more information about that here: https://www.missuniverse.com/

This market will resolve to the country represented by the contestant ranked third in the Miss Universe 2026 competition, according to the ranking below.

Contestants will be ranked according to their official competition ranking. If two or more contestants share the same ranking, ties will be broken alphabetically by the English name of the country they represent. This market will resolve according to the country ranked third under this ranking.

If the result of this competition isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on official results as reported by the Miss Universe Organization.

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/miss-universe-2026-third-place
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/miss-universe-2026-third-place?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/miss-universe-2026-third-place

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.