# Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory: prediction market odds

> Live prediction market odds for "Missouri's 2nd District margin of victory". Democrats, 1+ pts leads at 94.9%. Next is Democrats, 3+ pts at 74%. $34K has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

- Status: Live
- Prices updated: 2026-11-04T22:25:00Z (2 min ago)
- Expected to resolve by: Nov 3, 2027
- Volume traded: $34K
- Venues: Polymarket, Kalshi
- Category: other

## Odds by outcome

| Outcome | Chance | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap between venues |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Democrats, 1+ pts | 94.9% | — | 94.9% | not on both |
| Democrats, 3+ pts | 74% | — | 74% | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 47.4% | 47.4% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 40.5% | 40.5% | — | not on both |
| Democrat 6%+ | 18.3% | 18.3% | — | not on both |
| Democrats, 9+ pts | 8% | — | 8% | not on both |
| Democrats, 6+ pts | 7.7% | — | 7.7% | not on both |
| Republican 12-15% | 7.2% | 7.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 6-9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | — | not on both |
| Republican 18%+ | 3.3% | 3.3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 3-6% | 3% | 3% | — | not on both |
| Republican 0-3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | — | not on both |
| Republican 9-12% | 1.2% | 1.2% | — | not on both |
| Republican 15-18% | 1.1% | 1.1% | — | not on both |

"Chance" blends the venues' prices, weighted by volume. Venue columns are each venue's own price.

## How each venue settles

- Polymarket: UMA optimistic oracle.
- Kalshi: Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange). Sources: [Missouri Secretary of State](https://www.sos.mo.gov).

## Links

- Full page with charts and order books: https://thepredictionmarkets.com/odds/missouris-2nd-district-margin-of-victory-1
- Trade on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/mo-02-house-margin-of-victory-2026?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- Trade on Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmidtermmov?utm_source=thepredictionmarkets.com&utm_medium=referral
- API (free key): https://api.thepredictionmarkets.com/api/public/v1/events/missouris-2nd-district-margin-of-victory-1

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Source: The Prediction Markets (https://thepredictionmarkets.com), which compares Kalshi and Polymarket prices side by side. Prices are market-implied probabilities, not forecasts by TPM. Cite the page URL and the "Prices updated" time.